From fads to foresight: How to spot the true drivers behind online trends

We’re all obsessed with trends. There’s a feeling that, if we could just know what the next exciting idea or viral moment is going to be, we’ll be able to connect with our audiences perfectly, everyone will love us and that will solve all our problems. And of course, understanding which trends resonate with our audiences can be an important part of our work (in 2024’s State of Social Listening report, three of the top 10 reasons for analysing social data were around identifying trends in some way). But we need to understand that there are different types of trends and that not all of them will lead us to the insights and results that we’re looking for. 

In fact, not all of these trends are actually trends. As we discussed in last year’s What’s Trending report, there’s a difference between a trend - i.e., something that will have lasting impact on an industry, an organisation or society - and something that’s trending - i.e., an idea or fad that sees a positive increase in engagement for a short period of time. But looking at what’s trending can have benefits beyond knowing when to create your own version of that viral video or whether to cobble together a meme to share in the thread that all your competitors are joining. They can actually be signals of broader, more long term trends. They’re trend drivers. 

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How can we identify trend drivers, and how can they help our work as social listening professionals?

Firstly, it’s important to establish that not all trends are being driven by consumers. They might affect consumers and their purchasing decisions, but they’re not necessarily a reflection of their likes, dislikes, interests, or inner desires. It can be easy to fall into the trap of believing that everything that goes viral on social media is because there is a genuine connection to this idea by the people engaging with it. That’s not always the case though. 

Think about it. Social media platforms are ruled by algorithms that unearth the content they believe we want to see, based on our past usage, general demographic information, and other interests we might have shown. After a while, though, are they actually showing us what we want to see? Or are we just watching what they’re showing us, because we don’t know what else is out there? Sure, we might like it enough to watch it, perhaps to even join in by creating our own versions of the content. But at the same time, are we doing this because we genuinely connect with the content? Or because we know the algorithm will show this to other people and we want to be visible online. We want to be part of a tribe. 

The same can be said for video lengths. Short-form video content is all the rage at the moment because it’s known to perform well. Again, though, does this perform well because it’s what consumers genuinely want? Or because that’s the majority of the content available to us. We don’t have much choice. Or, more worryingly, do we want that type of content because we’ve been conditioned to, as we’ve lost the ability to concentrate for longer than a few minutes at a time…

Ok. Focus. 

These are examples of science and technology as trend drivers. As online worlds and AI have evolved, they’ve shaped the way we experience the world and changed many of our behaviours with it. The videos that go viral might be fads, rather than trends, but they’re also signals of a much bigger societal shift towards digital experiences and the role of technology in our relationships with other humans. 

Deep, right?

This isn’t the only category of trend drivers, of course. There are some that are driven by shifts in consumer thinking. For example, according to Euromonitor, population changes can be a key trend driver. As the population ages and becomes one of the biggest cohorts, their likes and preferences are likely to influence business decisions as they have the most purchasing power. At the same time, Gen Z is already a bigger cohort than Millennials, making up around 25% of the current population, with their purchasing power predicted to grow to US $12T by 2030. This means their likes and interests are likely to shape future trends as brands look to capitalise on this group.

What are the other main trend drivers?

Depending on the methodologies you’re looking at, the categories can vary slightly. However, aside from science and tech, and population or cohort differences, trend drivers tend to fall under the following categories:

• Economic and political. This explains how the political and economic world order, including the policies that governments implement, influences individuals’ behaviours and therefore how society as a whole evolves.
• Environmental. This explores how the impact of climate change and other environmental factors can impact people’s behaviours.
• Socio-phsychological: This examines cognition, emotions and behaviours in social contexts. For example, the internet has brought with it a flood of information and choice. How does that affect people’s decison-making?
• Unexpected events: Such as pandemics. Covid-19 introduced some major changes to the way we lived and socialised, many of which we’re still feeling today.

Many of these trend drivers are out of the hands of individuals, but that doesn’t mean they don’t need to react. For example, an unexpected event, Covid-19, created the trend for remote and hybrid models of working. This was initially born out of necessity - the need to stay at home to prevent the virus from spreading - but the benefits soon became apparent and people (and businesses) jumped on this idea as a long-term solution to finding work-life balance. 

Out of this, came trends across different industries: fashion saw a shift to athleisure wear and essentially turning pyjamas into an acceptable public outfit, furniture design focused on finding creating home offices in the tiniest of spaces, retail started capitalising on ‘shopping local’ as people moved out of big cities, foodies began making sourdough because they had the time to nurture a starter (although, who really has the time for that?!)...

…but as quickly as people got used to this, economic and political forces have taken over to push for a return to the office. Whether we like it or not - and many of us don’t - the shift back to office work is, yet again, changing the way we live and work, even if it isn’t a complete return to a pre-pandemic status quo. And, once again, this isn’t necesaraily something being driven by consumers themselves. They’re just responding to a broader trend driver. 

Similarly, the recent pivot away from DEI policies in many major, largely US-based, companies might not be a trend driven by consumers themselves (in fact, most people in the US supported DEI policies). Yet, the current political landscape is forcing brands, and therefore consumers, to change the way they interact with each other and talk about these issues publicly. 

This conflict can be a trend driver in itself, though, as people see an opportunity to rebel against certain influences shaping society. They create counter-trends.

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So, what does this mean for social listening professionals?

Ok, we’ve wittered on long enough about trend drivers, societal shifts, political forces…blah, blah, blah. 

We know what you really care about is why it matters to you. How this helps you engage with your audiences and, more importantly, whether it’s worth even bothering to follow what’s trending on TikTok. 

The good news is that these viral fads are still valuable when you’re looking for ways to engage with your audience. The truth is, for whatever reason, people are paying attention to these ideas, so finding ways to jump into relevant conversations with your customers at the right time and on the right platform will help you connect with them. 

The other piece of good news (wins all round today) is that beyond this, these fads can help you uncover bigger trends that are going to impact your brand in the long term. For this, you need to understand the context in which they’re being shared and to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. You can’t just take the trend at face value. Instead, think about what’s causing certain ideas to become popular - what are the drivers behind them and why are people responding to them in this way. This is the first step in going beyond reactive planning and instead thinking about long-term strategy and foresight. This is the key to developing sustainable brand growth. So, next time you’re finding yourself trying to fit some content around a viral sound, maybe think about what is driving that trend, beyond the likes and clicks.

If you’re interested in learning more about how to spot trends as well as seeing some great, IRL examples of brands using trends to their advantage, make sure to sign up to this year’s Trends Summit which is taking place online on May 15th.